Gog Clearing The Decks

"Therefore, son of man, prophesy and say to Gog: 'This is what the Sovereign LORD says: In that day, when My people Israel are living in safety, will you not take notice of it? You will come from your place in the far north, you and many nations with you, all of them riding on horses, a great horde, a mighty army. You will advance against My people Israel like a cloud that covers the land. In days to come, O Gog, I will bring you against My land, so that the nations may know Me when I show Myself holy through you before their eyes."

Here's an interesting little nuance of Russia's attack on Georgia last month (via Carl in Jerusalem):

In a secret agreement between Israel and Georgia, two military airfields in southern Georgia had been earmarked for the use of Israeli fighter-bombers in the event of pre-emptive attacks against Iranian nuclear installations. This would sharply reduce the distance Israeli fighter-bombers would have to fly to hit targets in Iran. And to reach Georgian airstrips, the Israeli air force would fly over Turkey.

The attack ordered by Saakashvili against South Ossetia the night of August 7 provided the Russians the pretext for Moscow to order Special Forces to raid these Israeli facilities where some Israeli drones were reported captured.

Now not only are those Georgian airfields no longer available for Israeli use against Iran, but thanks to the undiminished incompetence of Israeli Brigadier General Gal Hirsch - the commander of Israeli forces on the Lebanese border in July 2006 - but the Russians reportedly got hold of an Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle complete with sophisticated electronic reconnaissance equipment. Which means we can count on them reverse-engineering it and passing on that helpful information to their clients in Tehran and Damascus.

The loss of a northern axis of attack limits the potential effectiveness of an Israel pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facililties. Shorter distance is only one factor; as one of Carl's commenters points out, Iran's air defenses are concentrated to the west and south, not the north, and the mountainous Caucasian terrain makes it easier for low-flying aircraft to evade radar. It's not difficult to project that we envisioned using those Georgian airfields for airstrikes against those same targets as well. Now that option has been, if not eliminated, than far less likely. And the chances for a direct solution to the Iranian nuclear problem dwindled away to virtually nothing quite some time ago as it is.

This may be the stake through the heart of avoiding a nuclear war in the Middle East - or over our own territory.

Like the old man at the gas station told Sara Connor at the end of The Terminator, "There's a storm coming." Seven years after 9/11, are we any less fat, dumb, and oblivious now than we were then?