Pollish Jokes

A recent Newsmax Media-Zogby poll showed former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin leading the Republican field as the party’s preferred candidate for president in 2012.

And a breakdown of demographic and other data from the survey offers some interesting insights on current Republican thinking about GOP candidates in the next presidential election:

• Sarah Palin, who grabbed 22.2% of the vote in the poll, is more popular in the East than anywhere else in the country. Interestingly, she has been described as a Western and Southern candidate, but our Zogby poll found that 25% of Easterners supported her. The West, in fact, gave her the lowest figure —     20%.
• Palin is not as strong with 65-plus voters — her percentage there dropped to 19.7%. She seems to be popular with younger voters, with 23% of those between ages 18 and 29 supporting her.
• Newt Gingrich came in at 12.4%, but he seems to skew with stronger support among males, 14%, while female Republican voters gave him 11%.
• Palin skews favorably with women, with 23.3% of Republican women supporting her compared to 21% of Republican men. She also does very well in the 55-to-69 demographic group, where 24% of Republicans back her. That number drops dramatically to just 14% in the 70-plus group.
• Mike Huckabee seems to be a favorite of black Republicans, garnering 24.2% of the vote, more than any other candidate in the field.
• Palin draws exceedingly well with born-again and Evangelical Christians, pulling a strong 28.4% of their vote. She also gets strong support from less educated voters — 28.6% of those who said they did not have a college degree voted for her, while those with a college degree gave her just 18.5%.
• Mitt Romney had consistently strong poll numbers across all demographic groups. Interestingly, although he is a Mormon, he   led the pack among Catholic voters, even beating out Palin, 23.6% to 21.1%.
• Romney also seems to be very favorably viewed by Jewish Republicans, gaining a remarkable 32% of their support.
• Geographically, Palin is very strong in small cities, 27.4%, and rural areas, 27.8%. Romney, on the other hand, is very strong in large cities, with 22.8% of the vote, and in suburbs with 22.3%.

Other possible GOP candidates included in the poll were Scott Brown, Jeb Bush, David Petraeus, and Tim Pawlenty.

Peeps, it's a year before any of the above will be a whit more (all you Independence Day marks will get that subtle pun) than pure mental masturbation, and two years before it will actually start to matter, and by that time most of the above names won't be in the mix.  But just for the record (in same order as above):

***I love Saracuda; she could have been the American Thatcher.  But last summer, after not even a year of Obamedia muggings, she quit her burgeoning political career for the easy life of the punditocracy.  Oh, sure, she's keeping her toes in the surf, but fleeing her enemies instead of staying in the Alaska governorship (including easily winning a second term) is gonna leave a bigger mark than any of her devotees are willing to realize.

***Newt Gingrich is a wonderful center-right party ideologist, and a terrible national candidate and political leader.  His Speakership settled for all time his lack of suitable temperment for the big time.

***Mike Huckaplucka - GOP primary campaign runners-up get their turn; primary campaign distant also-rans do not.

***Mitt Romney - See Huckles and raise him Massachusetts RomneyCare.

Pawlenty would at least be a fresh face at the national level, and has the right (i.e. two-term gubernatorial) pedigree.  Though I must same I'm much more intrigued by George Will's hypothetical Mitch Daniels-Paul Ryan ticket.

At any rate, if you want more interesting (which is to say, more relevant) polling numbers, try these on for size:

ARKANSAS SENATE: GOP challengers 51%, Blanche Lincoln 35%

COLORADO SENATE: GOP challengers 48%, Michael Bennett 39%