Speaking Loudly & Carrying A Big Teleprompter

On the Korean Peninsula, temperature's rising...sort of:

“If our territorial waters, airspace or territory are militarily violated, we will immediately exercise our right of self-defense,” Lee said in an address to the nation, televised live Monday morning.

“From this moment, no North Korean ship will be allowed to make passage through any of the shipping lanes in the waters under our control, which has been allowed by the Inter-Korean Agreement on Maritime Transportation,” Lee said. “The sea routes meant for inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation must never again be used for armed provocations.”…

“Trade and exchanges between the Republic of Korea and North Korea will also be suspended,” Lee said.

“However, we will continue to provide assistance for infants and children,” he said. “Matters pertaining to the Kaesong Industrial Complex will be duly considered, taking its unique characteristics into consideration.”

President Lee has to take this more seriously than Barack Obama does, since, obviously, he's a lot closer to the front line.  Also because Lee was elected on a pro-hawk platform vis-a-vie the NoKo's.  Which is doubtless one of the reasons why the latter torpedoed the ROKS Cheonan a month ago.  In plain, non-Klingon English, Kim is attempting to call Lee's bluff.

No doubt the SoKo leader hopes that by delivering an almost-ultimatum, he can face down Kim while allowing them both to save face, while we go hat in hand yet again to Beijing to beg the ChiComms into pulling back the leash on Pyongyang, while not giving brain cell #1 over to pondering that maybe, just maybe, they are the ones using their client to test us through our ally.  If the latter is so - and, for the record, I wholeheartedly believe it - it makes it more, not less, likely that Kim will push this confrontation to the next level.

There is where Lee's and Obama's perceived interests will diverge.  If pushed to the wall, South Korea will have no choice but to fight or be humiliated and likely destabilized.  Does anybody seriously believe that Red Barry will go to war in East Asia under any circumstances?  Spare me the surprise at his "offering 'unequivocal' support for South Korea’s defense, ....rattling the saber by ordering U.S. commanders in Korea to 'ensure readiness,' and authorizing joint naval exercises with SK in the 'near future.'”  That's not "sabre-rattling"; it doesn't even qualify as empty bluster.  It's the L'il President saying what he thinks his weak domestic political position requires him to say.  At the most, it's meant to prop up President Lee's almost-ultimatum in the hopes it can help this crisis blow over.  If it fails, the SoKos will look around and find the vapor trail that Captain Courageous left behind.

Put even more succinctly, B.O. has no interest in this particular crisis, because it isn't the kind he can exploit.  That's the lesson a resumption of the Korean "police action" will teach.  'tis profoundly lamentable that it's only the ChiComms that will learn it.