The Art Of The Possible

For years I've seemingly vaccilated between realism and principle when it comes to what we refer to as RINOs (Republicans In Name Only).  Go here for an outstanding sample of the latter; I don't have any particular example of the former, because, in the big-picture sense, realism has been my default mode.

But even in that "memo of understanding" el foldo five years ago, for all that I ragingly blasted RINOs and consigned them to the fiery pits of political hell, there is one factor that needs to be pointed out.  Of the seven "moderate" Republican senators who defected to the then-minority Democrats on breaking their extraconstitutional filibusters of President Bush's constitutionalist appellate court nominees - McCain, DeWine, Snowe, Warner, Grahamnesty, Collins, and Chaffee - four of those seven are/were from "red" states.  Only three of them were from the deep "blue".

That matters, because the most readily available means of conservative retribution for such backstabbing perfidy - the primary challenge - is really only viable in "red" states where the "true conservative" alternative has an even or better chance of winning the general election that follows.

A lot of buzz has surrounded the fall of less than stallwart 'Pubies such as Robert Bennett of Utah (felled by Mike Lee) and more recently Lisa Murkowski of Alaska (toppled by Joe Miller).  The Tea Party on a "Shermanesque" march through the Republican Party, as the crocodile-concerned-about-the-GOP Obamedia spins it.  But the latter should be afraid, because Lee and Miller are going to be in the U.S. Senate next year.  Their unseating of those two RINO incumbents strengthened the party in states where doing so did not significantly endanger those seats with falling into Donk hands.

Even in more "swing" or "purple" states like Nevada (where TPer Sharron Angle upset establishmentarian Sue Lowden) and Colorado (where TPer Ken Buck bested establishmentarian Jane Norton), both winners are competitive (Buck leading appointed incumbent Michael Bennett, Angle in a dead head with Dirty Harry Reid), and in a GOP tsunami cycle, are better than even bets to flip those seats back from the Dark Side.

But then there are states like....Maine.  Massachusetts.  Connecticut.  "Blue" states.  States so blue that the flag there has blue stripes instead of red.  So blue that when the sun sets, it turns from yellow to blue instead of red.  So blue that the inhabitants are all Andorians because nobody who lives there has red blood.  So blue that the visible light spectrum doesn't HAVE a red wavelength when it passes through their airspace.

States where "true conservatives" have very little chance of winning, but RINOs can be competitive.

The Maine Wonder Twins (the aforementioned Senators Collins and Snowe) both voted for Hogzilla.  Snowe flirted with supporting ObamaCare.  The both voted for ObamaFinReg.  They're RINOs.  They do things like that.  It is infuriatingly frustrating at times.  But you know what?  They're from a really, really, REALLY "blue" state where our choice is between somebody who'll be with us half the time versus somebody who'll never be with us EVER.  So in their case you take the half-loaf, because you're never going to get the full meal deal.

Same thing with Scott Brown, the man who returned the Kennedy Seat to the people.  TPers worked like mad to push him over the top and were ecstatic when he triumphed over Martha Coakly.  That euphoria lasted about a month when Brown sold out on Son of Hogzilla.  But as I advised Jenber, this was going to happen.  It was inevitable.  Scottie B. ran against ObamaCare; he did NOT run as a "true conservative".  Why?  Because he never would have gotten elected in the first place.  Half a loaf versus none.

I'd love for it to be otherwise, but reality is reality.  Rush Limbaugh is correct when he says that conservatism wins national elections.  But that doesn't mean that conservatism wins EVERYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY.  In hostile states, the Right has to take what it can get.

Which brings us to Delaware, and a suddenly "bitter" Republican primary war that I honestly didn't know existed until today between coasting-to-general-election-victory RINO and current Delaware Congressman Mike "Half A Loaf" Castle and "true conservative" but more than a little crankish Christine O'Donnell.

This is the third time in as many cycles that O'Donnell has run for the Senate from Delaware.  She was an afterthought in the GOP primary in '06, and won the nod in '08 only because nobody else bothered in a Donk wave cycle.  Slow Joe retained the seat he subsequently vacated by thirty points, and outspent the pauperized O'Donnell by a FACTOR of thirty.  Now she's running again, evidently because being a professional candidate is the occupation as which she's been the least unsuccessful (follow the link above, I'm not exaggerating).

Yes, Mike Castle is a RINO.  Yes, he voted for cripple and tax in the House last summer.  But he's been elected statewide in Delaware eleven times - twice as governor, nine times as the state's at-large congressional representative.  The predominantly "blue" Delaware electorate knows Mike Castle and, for weal and for woe, likes him.  Whereas to the degree that they know Christine O'Donnell, they just don't take her seriously.

Things like this, however, stand to build up active dislike:

This local radio interview did not go well for Christine O’Donnell, who is challenging Representative Mike Castle for the GOP Senate nomination in Delaware.

The host plays audio of O’Donnell bragging that she won two of Delaware’s three counties in her 2008 Senate bid against Joe Biden.

In Sussex County, she came quite close, 43,123 votes to Joe Biden’s 43,395 votes.

She admits that she considers that a tie, 49% to 49%. While losing by 272 votes isn’t technically a tie, it is a small margin of defeat, so fine. Let’s say she covered the point spread.

But her other “win” is Kent County, where she lost, 27,981 to 37,074. That amounts to 43% to 56.9%. It’s really hard to argue that that even meets the broadest definition of “a tie.”

Of course, she lost the largest county, New Castle, 69,491 votes to 177,070 votes, roughly 28.1% to 71.8%.

In other words, if she had carried every vote cast in the Senate race in Sussex County in 2008, she still would have lost by more than 18,000 votes.

Then she chooses to repeat to the host that many people charge he’s on the take by Mike Castle. It goes downhill from there.

And this:

Sounds like some sort of public access channel programming.  O'Donnell disavowed this smear against Castle, and maybe public access channel-calibre outfits are all she can afford, but I have to say, the most descriptive adjective that comes to my mind when I look at Christine O'Donnell's career, background, quasi-paranoia and tactics is...."loser".  And to those amongst the Good Guys like Mark Levin and the guys at RedState.com, who not unreasonably or un-understandingly loathe Mike Castle's RINO guts, I have to ask the question: Is this a person who seems to you like one who is LIVING the "true conservative" values she purportedly espouses?  And someone that we want as a standardbearer for "true conservatism"?

Ace and Eeyore make the same realist argument.  Here's Ace's punchline:

The pathway to success is to change Blue to [Purple], and Purple to Red, and Red to Even Redder. We are doing that. We are trading in RINO Murkowski for a Senator more in sync with a true red state…

We cannot get a super-red person elected to a blue state. Period. The anti-Obama factor gives everyone about an 8% bump. Add that to Christine O’Donnell’s 35% (from last time) and she gets to 43%.

The Tea Party Express needs to ask itself a trio of hard questions:

1) Why did Sarah Palin endorse Carly Fiorina instead of "true conservative" Chuck DeVore to challenge Barbara Boxer in bluest California?

2) Isn't the cause of "true conservatism" advanced more by taking back the Senate majority with a RINO like Mike Castle when chairman's gavels will fall into the hands of GOP colleagues much closer to "pure" than he is?

3) Is Christine O'Donnell really serving the "true conservative" cause by playing general election spoiler the only beneficiaries of which can be Barack Obama and the Democrat Party?